Bitcoin price action in 2021 so far mirrors 2017 — Will it continue?


Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest rally has lastly damaged via to succeed in broadly anticipated new all-time highs. With September being left behind and “Uptober” delivering on excessive hopes, many analysts are more and more assured that the 12 months will play out in the identical approach as 2017. 

In reality, a latest tweet from crypto analyst TechDev reveals simply how carefully the value chart for 2021 is monitoring 2017, and it’s startlingly shut.

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However can a seamless upward trajectory actually be that easy?

Following the indications

A number of items of knowledge level to similarities within the patterns between the 2 cycles. Firstly, the relative strength index, which merchants use to establish overbought and oversold markets, is tracing the identical path as 2017. In 2013 and 2017, every cycle displayed two peaks, so if occasions comply with course, then we’re nonetheless due a second rally.

TechDev’s bold prediction is {that a} $200,000 BTC value is “programmed in.” Korean dealer Mignolet can also be bullish, stating in early October that the lower of quantity shifting from spot to derivatives markets is a optimistic market sign. In the meantime, even again in September, some have been sure about BTC reaching the $100,000 mark even earlier than the latest all-time highs.

On-chain analytics agency Glassnode just lately revealed a review of long-term hodling patterns, which supplies additional credence to the argument for one more rally to come back. The outcomes exhibit that cash held longer than a statistically vital interval of 155 days solely start to enter the markets as soon as costs break the earlier all-time excessive. On-chain patterns additionally at the moment present a pattern towards accumulation.

Put merely, long-term holders are making certain that demand for BTC outstrips provide.

Nonetheless, not everybody agrees that historical past is repeating itself. Once we requested whether or not he thinks 2021 is a mirror of 2017, Mati Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics, instructed Cointelegraph “Under no circumstances,” including additional:

“2017 started with Bitcoin crossing $1,000 per coin and regularly snowballed all through the course of the 12 months, constantly breaking new highs, a crescendo that peaked in December. This 12 months, we noticed the mass mania at the start of the 12 months after which a lukewarm extension of that momentum.”

Backing up this view, different indicators are exhibiting a extra tentative correlation. In 2017, BTC’s dominance dropped sharply through the first half of the 12 months earlier than selecting up because it moved towards the $20,000 resistance. Early 2021 showed a similar pattern, and dominance has been growing since September. Nonetheless, the route of journey isn’t but incontrovertibly upward.

The identical might be mentioned of lively addresses, which by this level in 2017 had been on a near-vertical upward trajectory. Nonetheless, whereas the upward pattern right here is extra pronounced than BTC’s dominance, it’s however on a gentler incline.

Might it merely be that 2021 is much less of a feeding frenzy for incoming particular person traders than in 2017?

It appears seemingly. For example, web switch to and from exchanges has some similarities to the patterns of the final bull run. However general, the markets are behaving in a extra measured style.

Micha Benoliel, co-founder and CEO of Web-of-Issues community Nodle, factors out that there are macro-level variations between 2017 and now that would account for these variations in sample. Talking to Cointelegraph, he mentioned that the state of affairs is completely completely different:

“The COVID disaster has hit a lot of our economies, and the extent of cash printed by central banks to offer help to our economies has reached new highs. Inflation charges are rising, and due to this fact, Bitcoin is a protected place to hedge in opposition to what’s taking place.”

So, what might be anticipated from BTC?

No matter whether or not the current is mirroring the previous by all measures, analysts have been nearly universally bullish on Bitcoin’s value even earlier than this week’s stellar value motion.

TechDev’s $200,000 prediction is on the larger finish of most forecasts, whereas analyst Filbfilb put prices at $72,000 by November.

After which there’s the constantly dependable PlanB. The creator of the stock-to-flow mannequin for Bitcoin has nailed the final two month-to-month closing costs to inside a fraction of a p.c and has predicted an October shut of $63,000 and $98,000 for November. He additionally ideas BTC to have reached $135,000 by December — not, as he points out, based mostly on his in style stock-to-flow mannequin. If that have been 100% correct, BTC would have already hit the $100,000 mark, in line with him.

As a substitute, evidently the group can count on the analyst to disclose particulars of a brand new value and/or on-chain information mannequin that’s driving these scarily correct month-to-month value predictions.

How lengthy can it final?

The 2017 run peaked in December when bullish sentiments ran out at nearly $20,000. Though a lesser breakout in early January introduced recent hopes, it was downhill from there.

It’s additionally price noting that the final huge BTC bull run earlier than that was in 2013 when the value peak got here a number of weeks earlier on the finish of November and the beginning of December. Once more, the excessive was adopted by one other rally in early January.

If historical past does repeat itself, then December might mark the purpose at which the market will enter a brand new part of this halving cycle. PlanB believes it will run for longer, although, based mostly on his undisclosed on-chain mannequin.

After all, metrics and fashions can’t take account of unfolding information or different market occasions which will affect costs. Up to now this 12 months, Bitcoin has weathered a number of regulatory blows from the Chinese language authorities and Elon Musk’s antics, together with the enhance of turning into authorized tender in El Salvador and gaining broader recognition from the monetary sector and establishments. A stagnating financial system and investor curiosity in crypto’s market-beating yields have additionally helped preserve a stable help degree.

Associated: Crypto breaks Wall Street’s ETF barrier: A watershed moment or stopgap?

Whereas the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) information propels the markets into epic bull territory for now, there are not any cast-iron ensures that optimistic sentiments will preserve driving the markets. There’s the continued saga of potential United States regulatory intervention and an more and more heated vitality disaster that appears prone to impression mining profitability — these, or different macroeconomic elements, might blow the markets astray.

Steven Gregory, CEO of Foreign, believes the present ETF hype invokes comparable, if not similar, emotions to 2017, telling Cointelegraph that when the primary Bitcoin futures contract was added to CBOE, there was widespread pleasure: “Initially, there was a powerful upward value motion, however wanting again, it regarded just like the tail finish of the bull run for BTC.” However he cautions in opposition to wrapping up for the nippiness of a brand new crypto winter, elaborating:

“There could also be some parallels right here between the 2017 bull run and this 2021 cycle; nonetheless, adoption is way larger, open curiosity is larger, and the utility of crypto is unrecognizably farther alongside than in 2017.”

Regardless that it doesn’t assure the outcome, evidently bullish sentiments are overwhelmingly robust at this level. Whichever approach it goes, 2021 is about to go down within the crypto historical past books as probably the most action-packed within the business’s colourful historical past.